( Original und Link zur Studie in Englisch : hier )
Heinrich Böll Stiftung
PUBLICATION SERIES ECONOMIC + SOCIAL ISSUES
Societal Transformation Scenario for Staying Below 1.5°C
A study by Kai Kuhnhenn, Luis Costa, Eva Mahnke, Linda Schneider, Steffen LangeEdited
of the Publication Series Economic & Social Issues Edited by the Heinrich Böll Foundation and Konzeptwerk
Neue Ökonomie 2020
Proofreading: Anne Wegner
Layout and design: feinkost Designnetzwerk, S. Langer
(predesigned by blotto design)
Printing: ARNOLD group, Großbeeren Cover photo: Cristofer Jeschke (– unsplash)
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has worked with Konzeptwerk Neue Ökonomie e.V. for seven years. Previously he worked with the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) in the field of energy and climate, focussing on policy evaluation, sufficiency measures and reviewing IPCC reports, for more than eight years.Luis Costa is an engineer turned researcher interested in the topics of climate impacts and the elab-oration of open energy models – in particular considering the effect of changing lifestyles. Luis grad-uated with a Diploma degree in Environmental Engineering from Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (2006) and received his PhD from the University of Greifswald (2013). Eva Mahnke works as a freelancer in communication and public relations, focusing on climate pol-icy, degrowth and issues of sustainability. Previously she worked as a journalist on climate policy. Eva has an academic background in ethics, economy and political sciences.
is Senior Programme Officer for International Climate Policy at the Heinrich Boell Foundation in Berlin. Her work focusses on false solutions in climate and biodiversity. She is also an activist in the climate justice movement and the Right to the City movement in Berlin.
is a researcher at the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW), affili-ated scholar of the Resource Economics Group at the Humboldt University Berlin and associated researcher at the Department of Social-Ecological Transformation at the Technical University Berlin. His research focuses on digital transformation, the relationship between economic growth and envi-ronmental throughput, rebound effects and concepts for sustainable economies.
1 Why we need a Societal Transformation Scenario 11
2 The bias towards growth and technology fixes in most climate scenarios 15
3 Scenario philosophy: key premises 20
4 Methodology 23
Comparison of Integrated Assessment Models and the Global Calculator 27
5 The Societal Transformation Scenario (STS) 30
5.1 Selection criteria for consumption parameters 32
5.2 Road-based passenger transport 34
5.3 Passenger Aviation 39
5.4 Ground freight transport 43
5.5 Housing 47
5.6 Food Sector: Sustainable diets and ruminant meat 50
5.7 Land use changes and CO2 sequestration 54
5.8 Technology, agriculture and land use parameters 56
6 Scenario results 58
7 The Societal Transformation Scenario –
sketches of a different tomorrow 66
8 Conclusion 75
Annex 1 – Assumptions in the model 76
Annex 2 – On CO2 sequestration through ecosystem-based approaches and the fallacy of «net-zero» 92